I was kind of planning on leaving the election articles alone on Election Day, but I'm stressed (I envy normal people who don't lose their minds every time a B-Grade poll drops) and so I thought I would share my last minute morning thoughts, and a few of my Election Day rituals.
Yesterday I published my Election Night Guide, and overall I'm pleased with it. I write this over a week in advance of the election, so there's always things I want to tinker with, and inevitably there are races I can't help but second-guess. Polling has been remarkably consistent all year, but of course there were some subtle shifts in the past week I've taken notice of that might have changed my mind on the prediction had I had access to them. The big ones would be in Georgia and Iowa. Georgia has seen a steady shift toward Biden/Ossoff in the past week, and (though you're not supposed to use early voting numbers, I'm going to here) early voting in Atlanta is rock solid. There's a part of me that wants to call this race for both of them, or at least Biden (I still think the double runoff is over-exaggerated), and it's certainly something I'm going to be looking for on Election Night. Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, the same as Michigan & slightly less than Pennsylvania, so it'd be a very important part of a Biden victory if one of his Great Lakes states fell.
Iowa, on the other hand, has shown signs of a Republican gain, or at least signs of confusion in the polls. Ann Selzer, arguably the country's most well-regarded pollster, came out with a poll showing Trump +7 and Ernst +4, and showed both Rita Hart & especially Abby Finkenauer in trouble. This could be an outlier (my poor friends/family had to watch me react to this one in real-time, which I apologized for profusely afterwards as I likely overreacted). Selzer is a big enough deal that I'd reconsider my predictions for Theresa Greenfield and a Finkenauer reelection, particularly the former, though she has been wrong before (just ask Ted Cruz & Fred Hubbell), but I will say my confidence in the Hawkeye State being a split ticket state has evaporated.
The rest of the polling, though, underlined my predictions. If anything, there's more evidence that I'm wrong about Ohio/Texas than I am North Carolina or Pennsylvania (Florida continues to Florida-who knows where that lands). All-in-all, a steady race stays, and that should benefit Biden.
That doesn't mean that I'm not nervous. This is a personal blog, so I don't mind telling you that I haven't made it through the night for four days without waking up from an election night nightmare related to 2016. The real world at large isn't helping matters here. The Selzer poll was considered an outlier in 2016...until it very much wasn't. In 2016 Jon Ralston predicted (correctly) that Nevada was in the bag for Hillary, something we all took as a sign that Clinton was headed to a win nationally...until it wasn't. And in perhaps the most sadistic move of the year, Lorne Michaels has hired Dave Chapelle to host Saturday Night Live next weekend...the same exact thing that happened four years ago where Chapelle & Chris Rock had a cruel "I told you so sketch" that was drenched in sexism. There is not enough money in the world to pay me to watch that, even if Biden wins, especially after John Mulaney's tin-eared monologue this past weekend.
I am weirdly less worried about Trump's reactions to a loss, which may be a sign I'm not understanding the situation. The wall around the White House feels unusual to me (maybe because it's the only part of their election night strategy that they aren't telegraphing), mostly because Trump's strategy is built on it being a 2016-style election, and right now it's not. It could be (Trump, as I keep adding onto conversations that don't even relate to politics), could still pull an inside straight, but it's more likely that Biden wins in a rout. It will be difficult, absurd, & bordering on the impossible for Trump to contest four different Biden victories (which he'd need to do if my predictions are right, and keep in mind I didn't predict him in Ohio, Texas, Georgia, or Iowa, all of which would add to this pileup if Biden won). The next 80 days I think will be ugly (I'm guilty of being someone who bought supplies for the week), especially the next couple of weeks as one side has to see what losing feels like, but my bigger concern is superstition than the reality of the situation right now-we have to win before we get to the next, potentially awful, lame duck chapter.
All right, so today will look like this for me personally-I will be waking up at 5 AM (I have Tuesday & Wednesday off from work), and will be (for the first time ever) election judging. I am both excited and extremely nervous. This is (by-far) the most people I will have reacted with in eight months, and Covid concerns will probably be something I'll have to push by quickly (even though I'll wear a mask all day and hopefully everyone else does too as it's mandated, I'll still largely be quarantining for two weeks, certainly away from relatives, during that time frame). I'll be done with my shift before election night begins (for those keeping track, that's 6 PM EST, as that's when Indiana & Kentucky will start to get results-both are expected to be solid red, though Indiana-5 is a tossup district that could give us hints of the rest of the night).
In terms of other traditions, I'm abandoning them after 2016. I broke a couple of them that year (I watched with someone, which won't be a thing this year), and I don't want to do others. Normally I would pick a dish from the home state of each candidate (2008's nachos (McCain), Chicago-style pizza (Obama), shrimp cocktail (Biden), and Baked Alaska (Palin) being my most inspired), but I don't want to do it this year (and not just because I still have no good ideas for Indiana). I've been dieting ferociously for months, and I'll be breaking that tonight in a real way, and I don't want Donald Trump to be a part of that celebration. Instead, I'll be eating Joe Biden's favorite foods (pasta with red sauce & ice cream), and as a snack BBQ potato chips. I also always buy a bottle of champagne & a bottle of whiskey, but I'm not doing it this year as I don't want to jinx it...though I will admit that I have a very small bottle of moscato that would do the trick if I have something to celebrate, but that was purchased a while ago & I will not be icing it unless things look REALLY good.
I generally start on CNN, but might be doing ABC or MSNBC on Election Night as Wolf Blitzer drives me batty. I get my white board into the living room to track House pickups, as well as to have a visual. I have all of my articles/predictions ready to go, and will be watching election results on at least 20 states' websites while it's happening. And I will be following along on Twitter, arguably the best place to get a sense of the night. If the results go south, I will be turning off the TV pretty quickly (I don't like Monday-morning quarterbacking so quickly as it's always ill-informed), but I'll stay up until at least midnight.
That's about it-I will be likely sleeping most of tomorrow after an exhausting day, but I'll try & get an election article out then (if anyone will already be sick of politics, you'll have a film review for sure tomorrow)-until then, good luck, and if you haven't gotten out to do so yet, get your vote on!
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